The Canadian GP guarantees to be an unpredictable occasion. It’s often filled with uncertainties resulting from altering climate situations all through the weekend. This yr, nevertheless, regardless of the forecasts remaining pretty secure thus far and anticipated to remain that manner tomorrow, the very smooth tire nomination on a low-grip and usually soiled observe will increase the chance of graining.
A phenomenon that affected all the highest groups throughout Friday’s race tempo simulations. Essentially the most affected was Ferrari, which might solely run with Lewis Hamilton resulting from Charles Leclerc’s absence following his FP1 crash. Earlier than sharing our ideas, let’s assessment the recommendation Pirelli gave to the groups after qualifying.
Pirelli’s recommendation – Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – 70 laps
The primary concern is unquestionably graining and the usage of C4 and C5 compounds in race mode. Mario Isola, Pirelli motorsport director, was very clear and concise: “Extending the 2025 compound vary is creating quite a lot of approaches amongst groups and drivers in tire utilization all through the weekend, which is able to replicate on the race. From a method perspective, we expect a two-stop stays essentially the most believable possibility, favoring Medium and Laborious tires. The one-stop technique is theoretically legitimate however unlikely to repay, contemplating overtaking is feasible right here and the time misplaced within the pit lane for tire adjustments is sort of restricted (round 18 seconds),” in keeping with the assertion from the Pirelli group.
Graining and brief stops might open the door to a three-stop situation
It’s no secret that the C6 just isn’t essentially the most appropriate tire for the race. The brand new Pirelli compound, on this sort of circuit—as seen already at Imola—doesn’t make a distinction. In qualifying it’s typically even ignored and can doubtless be much more so in the course of the race.
The GP opens as much as numerous methods, largely relying on the remaining tire units obtainable to the drivers. We agree with Pirelli that the quickest technique, a minimum of on paper, shall be a two-stop plan like Medium-Medium-Laborious or Laborious-Laborious-Medium. It have to be famous that the C5, the yellow compound this yr, remains to be very smooth and, as seen already on Friday (race tempo knowledge), suffers loads from graining.
If drivers can handle stints of about 20 laps on the C5, then the M-M-H technique turns into attainable; in any other case, if degradation is excessive and an early pit cease is important, they may change to M-H-H or, in the event that they don’t have two units of C4, change plans in the direction of a three-stop technique doubtless involving the Tender tire.
Utilizing the Tender C6, in our opinion, shall be extra a matter of necessity (resulting from shortages of different compounds) quite than efficiency. We imagine that these beginning on Tender have both already dedicated to a three-stop or wish to attempt to achieve a bonus with an early undercut, hoping to select up positions whereas operating on Laborious tires in clear air. These beginning on Tender will doubtless go S-H-H or three stops.
If compelled to make use of Tender, we advocate utilizing it within the closing stint. The extra rubbered-in observe will assist handle graining higher. Given qualifying efficiency, nevertheless, we don’t imagine the C6 can provide a constant efficiency benefit over the C5. Once more, its use shall be extra out of necessity.
For these with a scarcity of Medium and Laborious tires—just one set of every obtainable—a two-stop technique together with all three compounds is feasible. Even in that case, one of the best strategy could be to make use of Tender within the final section of the race.
If graining is excessive, we might see two eventualities the place each undercuts and overcuts may very well be very efficient. Pitting early permits gaining observe place over drivers on worn tires initially, however these pitting late would possibly achieve a bonus over those that modified tires too early.
Abstract
The 2-stop technique is on paper the most suitable choice, however because the pit cease time is pretty brief (18 seconds), three stops may very well be a really fascinating various, particularly if graining is extreme. In Canada, potential security vehicles should even be thought of, as a Security Automobile deployment is at all times doubtless. The groups will should be adept at capitalizing on each alternative, particularly utilizing a free pit cease to realize a bonus.
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