Rivian (RIVN) will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday after the market closes. Though the EV maker aggressively lower prices final yr, a provide scarcity derailed some momentum. Rivian nonetheless stands by its aim of reaching its first constructive gross revenue in This fall. Right here’s what to anticipate from the report.
Rivian expects a constructive gross revenue in This fall 2024 earnings
Rivian beat expectations with 14,183 automobiles delivered within the remaining three months of 2024, bringing the annual complete to 51,579.
Though it was sufficient for Rivian to satisfy its full-year steering of fifty,500 and 52,000, it was solely barely greater than the 50,122 the corporate delivered in 2023.
After a provide scarcity started within the third quarter, Rivian lower its full-year manufacturing goal to 47,000 to 49,000 automobiles in 2024, down from 57,000. Rivian topped its (revised) goal with 49,476 models produced at its Regular, IL plant final yr.
Rivian’s deliveries and manufacturing embrace the R1S, R1T, and electrical supply and industrial vans. Regardless of the slower-than-expected development final yr, the corporate nonetheless expects earnings to enhance.
Final month, the EV maker confirmed that “The beforehand mentioned scarcity of a shared element on the R1 and RCV platforms is not a constraint” on manufacturing.
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | This fall 2024 | Full-Yr 2024 | 2024 steering | |
| Deliveries | 13,588 | 13,790 | 10,018 | 14,183 | 51,579 | 50,500 – 52,000 |
| Manufacturing | 13,980 | 9,612 | 13,157 | 12,727 | 49,476 | 47,000 – 49,000 |
Rivian additionally mentioned it’s nonetheless on observe to submit its first constructive gross revenue in This fall. CFO Claire McDonough instructed analysts on the corporate’s third-quarter earnings name that Rivian expects “a modest gross revenue” within the remaining three months of 2024.
Nonetheless, McDonough clarified that regulatory credit score gross sales, decrease prices because of plant upgrades and improved provide contracts, and different income outdoors automobile gross sales would primarily drive the achievement.
| Q3 ’22 | This fall ’22 | Q1 ’23 | Q2 ’23 | Q3 ’23 | This fall ’23 | Q1 ’24 | Q2 ’24 | Q3 ’24 | |
| Rivian loss per automobile | $139,277 | $124,162 | $67,329 | $32,594 | $30,500 | $43,372 | $38,784 | $32,705 | $39,130 |
Rivian’s internet loss fell to $1.1 billion within the third quarter, with a gross revenue lack of $392 million. Though the corporate misplaced round $39,000 on every automobile delivered within the third quarter, it is a drastic enchancment from 2022, when Rivian misplaced over $139,000 per unit.
Together with a $1 billion convertible word from Volkswagen, Rivian ended the third quarter with $6.7 billion in money and equivalents.
In accordance with Estimize, Wall St expects Rivian to submit This fall income of $1.4 billion, up from $1.3 billion in This fall 2023, and a lack of 0.68 per share (EPS) in comparison with a lack of $1.36 per share.
Prepping for R2
After launching its new three way partnership with VW, Scaringe mentioned the partnership was a “significant monetary alternative” value as much as $5.8 billion.
In accordance with Rivian’s Chief Software program Officer, Wassym Bensaid, different OEMs at the moment are “knocking on our door” about related provide offers for EV tech and software program.
Rivian’s greatest development driver remains to be but to come back. The corporate is making ready to launch its mid-size electrical SUV, the R2, early subsequent yr. It’s going to initially be constructed at Rivian’s Regular, IL facility, however manufacturing is predicted to considerably develop with plans to open a second plant in Georgia.
The R2 will begin at round $45,000, or practically half the price of the present R1T ($71,700) and R1S ($77,700). Rivian can even construct a smaller, extra inexpensive R3 crossover and high-performance R3X on the Georgia facility.
Rivian plans to construct the plant in two levels, every including 200,000 models of annual manufacturing capability. Rivian says the R2 and R3 are “vital drivers within the firm’s long-term development and profitability.”
Though Rivian secured a $6.6 billion federal mortgage for the brand new EV plant simply earlier than Trump took workplace, the funding is now in jeopardy after the Administration introduced plans to freeze federal loans.
Georgia Gov Brian Kemp instructed Channel 2 information this week that Rivian “secured that mortgage on the tail finish of the Biden administration and, you understand, I believe there’s no secret that the Trump administration is looking in any respect these issues.” He added, “So I don’t actually know the place that stands proper now.”
Rivian is assured the funds will probably be there subsequent yr after they go to attract them. A spokesperson mentioned, “We’re working exhausting to onshore US manufacturing, offering 1000’s of American jobs right here in Georgia.”
Rivian’s inventory is up since reporting third-quarter earnings in November. Nonetheless, RIVN shares are nonetheless down 12% over the previous 12 months and 90% from their all-time excessive shortly after going public in November 2021.
Examine again tomorrow after the market closes for a full breakdown of Rivian’s This fall 2024 earnings report.
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